Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.918449 2.028860 2.144610 2.275414 2.419618 2.574312 2.753569
2025-10-12 1.776830 1.932703 2.103893 2.307375 2.544684 2.815286 3.151019
2025-10-19 1.688306 1.871432 2.079032 2.334735 2.645434 3.016512 3.502529
2025-10-26 1.602878 1.802032 2.033286 2.326086 2.693658 3.149638 3.774991
2025-11-02 1.531866 1.742305 1.991570 2.314608 2.731708 3.266790 4.032126
2025-11-09 1.461882 1.678299 1.938807 2.282943 2.737879 3.338513 4.230006
2025-11-16 1.400146 1.620333 1.889087 2.250105 2.737444 3.397799 4.412170
2025-11-23 1.359873 1.586477 1.866987 2.250329 2.779208 3.515906 4.690673
2025-11-30 1.331161 1.565329 1.859265 2.267915 2.844322 3.670492 5.041376
2025-12-07 1.285346 1.520045 1.817611 2.236506 2.837072 3.716493 5.220993
2025-12-14 1.238097 1.470969 1.768652 2.192063 2.807431 3.725022 5.336809
2025-12-21 1.198085 1.429826 1.728435 2.157475 2.789465 3.749082 5.480597
2025-12-28 1.185185 1.424421 1.736588 2.192381 2.878483 3.951656 5.977426
2026-01-04 1.171645 1.417520 1.742196 2.223615 2.963718 4.155962 6.512876
2026-01-11 1.157158 1.408592 1.744298 2.249316 3.041401 4.354350 7.072679
2026-01-18 1.132429 1.384783 1.724512 2.241176 3.064004 4.458478 7.454166
2026-01-25 1.108358 1.361033 1.703793 2.230366 3.081083 4.553570 7.832909
2026-02-01 1.079682 1.330046 1.671649 2.200535 3.064523 4.584931 8.070226
2026-02-08 1.052166 1.299904 1.639717 2.169584 3.044080 4.606904 8.289147
2026-02-15 1.035481 1.284376 1.628268 2.169796 3.076391 4.732276 8.791709
2026-02-22 1.024458 1.276411 1.627410 2.186373 3.137704 4.920268 9.504801
2026-03-01 1.000691 1.249784 1.598333 2.156762 3.115724 4.938030 9.753309
2026-03-08 0.974447 1.219057 1.562397 2.114838 3.069570 4.902205 9.841108